Bitcoin struggles against resistance at the 0.5 Fibonacci level after a brisk bounce off its 50-day moving average as support. Is a drop to $8,000 next?
Bitcoin’s (BTC’s) price has been choppy since its October spike to $10,350, giving no clear indications of where its trend will head next. Overall, crypto’s pioneer asset has been fairly uneventful, with many price fakeouts.
Bitcoin’s daily candle bounced off its 50-day moving average (MA) as support on Nov. 12, although the industry’s flagship asset once again faces resistance at its 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, which could also be considered its range equilibrium.
The asset sits strongly below the $9,000 mark at press time, at a price of $8,766.70.
Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360
Bitcoin daily chart
BTC USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
On its daily chart, Bitcoin sank all the way down to $8,550 on Nov. 12 where it bounced off its 50-day moving average (MA) as support. Crypto’s main asset bounced near the 50-day MA two other times recently, on Nov. 8 and 11, indicating the average may be an area of significant interest for buyers.
After the bounce near $8,550, Bitcoin rallied more than $250, closing the day near $8,825.
$8,825 is the location of Bitcoin’s 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and when taking into account that its recent low near $7,300 and its swing high near $10,350. This level acted as resistance during Bitcoin’s Nov. 12 close and has continued to reject the asset’s price action on Nov. 13.
Bitcoin sits a considerable distance away from $9,275, the current location of its 200-day MA. The coin held the 200-day MA as strong support for numerous days, although the level finally broke down on Nov. 8.
Bitcoin’s chart also still shows a death cross, with the 50-day MA firmly below the 200-day MA, providing a signal of bearishness.
Bitcoin 4-hour chart
BTC USD 4 hour chart. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart reveals significant wicks in price action. These wicks likely triggered many stop-losses, also referred to as stop-loss hunting or stop-runs. This type of market behavior can sometimes be indicative of low volume trading.
Long wicks can also be accompanied by Bart Simpson patterns — price action which sees an asset’s price sharply rise, followed by a period of low volatility and an eventual sharp move in the opposite direction, painting an outline of the head of the popular yellow cartoon character of the same name.
Inverse Bart patterns also occur, posting the same type of price action, except in the opposite direction. The chart above shows an inverse Bart pattern in the middle of the green Ichimoku cloud. Bitcoin could complete another inverse Bart pattern with a swift move up from the current price.
The Ichimoku cloud holds as resistance at $8,822, above Bitcoin’s current price. Recent wicks also saw rejection from the Tenkan, which now holds near $8,845.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin needs to hold its 50-day MA as support, as it has done three times already. A break of this level could lead to further downside, as well as another resistance point for future price action.
The asset’s price is also below its 200-day MA. Historically, this is not a bullish signal, especially when coupled with the MA’s positioning above the 50-day MA.
The 4-hour Ichimoku cloud has also held as a bearish level for multiple days. If the bulls continue to face rejection, a breakdown may follow.
If Bitcoin can break above its 200-day MA once again and hold it as support, the market may be able to gain further upward momentum. The 50-day MA crossing above the 200-day MA in a golden cross would also likely give further rationale for bullishness.
Additionally, if Bitcoin can flip the 0.5 Fibonacci level as support, the coin may be able to gather some momentum to take another crack at the $9,000 level, which is likely to also be a subconscious psychological level.
Bitcoin’s price action has been slow, lacking meaningful volatility for the most part. This may be a fairly neutral condition, unless the price breaks down so much that it causes fear and starts a consistent downward trend.
In contrast, a bit of bullish news might be able to snap this market out of its current state and into a short-term uptrend, which could bolster Bitcoin’s longer-term uptrend that started back below $6,000.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of (@benjaminpirus) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.